Political Power and Economic Performance in Pakistan: A Party-Wise Analysis (1947–Present).

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Political Power and Economic Performance in Pakistan: A Party-Wise Analysis (1947–Present)



Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has experienced a complex political journey marked by alternating periods of civilian democratic rule and military governance. Each phase has left distinct economic, institutional, and social footprints—particularly in relation to economic stability, foreign exchange reserves, and poverty levels. This article presents a party-wise and regime-wise analysis of Pakistan’s governance history, focusing on cumulative performance rather than isolated political narratives.





Military Regimes: Stability Without Sustainability



Pakistan has spent nearly one-third of its history under direct military rule, making the armed forces the single longest governing institution in the country.



Economic Pattern



Military regimes—particularly under Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, and Pervez Musharraf—often began with short-term economic stabilization. These periods benefited from:


  • Strong foreign inflows (especially during Cold War and War on Terror eras)
  • External aid and concessional loans
  • Centralized decision-making



Foreign exchange reserves generally improved during the middle phases of these regimes, and GDP growth appeared strong on paper.



Structural Weaknesses



However, this growth was not institutionally sustainable. The economy remained:


  • Highly dependent on foreign aid
  • Weak in exports and industrial diversification
  • Vulnerable to external shocks




Poverty and Inequality



While headline growth improved, wealth concentration increased, and social sector development lagged. Poverty reduction was inconsistent and often reversed once external support declined.


Net Assessment:

Military regimes delivered temporary economic calm, but failed to build durable economic institutions or democratic accountability.





Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP): Welfare Vision, Economic Stress



The Pakistan Peoples Party governed Pakistan for approximately 14 years across different eras.



Economic Direction



PPP governments emphasized:


  • State involvement in the economy
  • Social welfare and labor rights
  • Political inclusion



However, many PPP tenures coincided with:


  • Global oil shocks
  • Sanctions
  • Internal political instability




State Bank Reserves



Foreign exchange reserves under PPP governments were often under pressure, particularly during the 1970s and late 1990s. The 2008–2013 period saw some recovery, but reserves remained fragile due to:


  • Energy imports
  • Debt servicing
  • Weak export performance




Poverty Outcomes



PPP deserves recognition for:


  • Introducing income support programs
  • Expanding social safety nets



Yet, high inflation and fiscal deficits limited the long-term poverty reduction impact.


Net Assessment:

PPP contributed significantly to social policy and democratic continuity, but struggled with macroeconomic discipline and reserve stability.





Pakistan Muslim League (PML / PML-N): Infrastructure-Led Growth



The Pakistan Muslim League (various factions, primarily PML-N) also governed for roughly 14 years, making it one of the most dominant civilian forces.



Economic Strategy



PML-N governments focused on:


  • Infrastructure development
  • Energy projects
  • Urban-centered growth



During certain periods, especially 1997–1999 and 2013–2017, Pakistan experienced:


  • Relative currency stability
  • Improved foreign reserves
  • Lower inflation for short durations




Structural Challenges



However, growth was largely:


  • Consumption-driven
  • Import-dependent
  • Debt-financed



This led to recurring balance-of-payment crises once external borrowing slowed.



Poverty and Inequality



Urban poverty declined modestly, but:


  • Rural poverty persisted
  • Regional inequality widened



Net Assessment:

PML-N delivered visible development and short-term stability, but did not fundamentally reform exports, taxation, or productivity.





Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI): Reform Rhetoric Amid Crisis



The PTI government (2018–2022) ruled during an exceptionally difficult period.



Economic Context



PTI inherited:


  • A severe balance-of-payments crisis
  • Depleted foreign reserves
  • High external debt



The government pursued:


  • IMF-backed stabilization
  • Exchange rate correction
  • Tax and governance reforms




State Bank Reserves



Reserves remained under stress, largely due to:


  • COVID-19 economic shock
  • Global commodity price increases



However, institutional reforms—especially greater autonomy of the State Bank—were notable.



Poverty Impact



Despite welfare programs like Ehsaas, inflation and unemployment increased, reversing earlier poverty gains.


Net Assessment:

PTI emphasized structural reform and transparency, but external shocks and weak political consensus limited results.





Overall Economic and Social Picture




Foreign Exchange Reserves



Across all regimes, Pakistan’s reserves have shown a cyclical pattern:


  • Temporary improvement
  • Followed by sharp depletion



This reflects a chronic export deficit and reliance on debt rather than sustainable earnings.



Poverty and Living Standards



Poverty in Pakistan has:


  • Declined temporarily during high-growth phases
  • Increased sharply during inflationary and crisis periods



No government—civilian or military—has succeeded in delivering long-term poverty eradication.





Conclusion: The Core Problem Beyond Parties



Pakistan’s economic challenges are structural rather than partisan. Regardless of who governed:


  • Export competitiveness remained weak
  • Tax base stayed narrow
  • Institutions lacked continuity



True economic stability requires:


  • Long-term policy consensus
  • Strong democratic institutions
  • Human capital investment
  • A shift from debt-driven growth to productivity-driven development



Until these fundamentals are addressed, changes in government—military or civilian—will continue to produce short-lived economic relief followed by recurring crises.





Author



Syed Ali Raza Naqvi Bukhari

Unity of Peace, Economic Reform, and Global Unity

Founder & Chairman of Tehreek Istehkam Pakistan, and the author of “Law of God” and “Social Democratic System.”

Advocate for truth, social justice, and reform in all sectors of society.


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