The Saudi–UAE Rivalry, the Yemen War, and the Cost of Power Politics

The Saudi–UAE Rivalry, the Yemen War, and the Cost of Power Politics

The conflict often described as a “war” between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is not a conventional military confrontation. Rather, it is a strategic rivalry shaped by diverging political, economic, and regional ambitions. Yemen has become the most visible arena where these differences surfaced, exposing a deeper crisis in Middle Eastern politics: the triumph of power calculations over human welfare.

A Rivalry, Not a War

Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain formal allies, bound by shared interests, economic ties, and security cooperation. However, over the last decade, both states have pursued independent regional visions. Saudi Arabia seeks leadership of the Muslim world through state-centric stability and territorial unity, while the UAE has emphasized influence through ports, trade routes, and flexible alliances.

This divergence did not begin in Yemen, but Yemen revealed it clearly.

Yemen: From Joint Intervention to Conflicting Objectives

When the Yemen war began in 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE stood together against the Houthi movement, which Riyadh viewed as an Iranian-backed threat on its southern border. Initially, the objective appeared unified: restore the internationally recognized Yemeni government and block Iranian influence.

Over time, however, their priorities split:

• Saudi Arabia aimed to preserve Yemen as a unified state under a friendly central government.
• The UAE increasingly supported southern Yemeni factions and separatist groups, focusing on strategic ports and maritime routes rather than national unity.

As a result, forces backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE sometimes found themselves indirectly confronting each other on Yemeni soil—an alarming development that revealed the limits of coalition warfare without a shared political vision.

Iran’s Calculated Advantage

Iran did not create the Yemen crisis, but it exploited it skillfully. By offering political and limited military support to the Houthis, Tehran gained a low-cost pressure point against Saudi Arabia. Yemen became a classic example of a proxy conflict where a regional power invested modest resources to drain a rival’s security, economy, and international standing.

Yet Iran’s gains remain constrained. It has influence, not control; leverage, not victory. The Houthis are partners of convenience, not instruments of absolute command.

The Inevitable Outcome: No Victory, Only Exhaustion

The most realistic outcome of the Yemen conflict is neither total peace nor decisive victory, but a forced compromise.

• Yemen is likely to remain de facto divided, with multiple power centers.
• Saudi Arabia will seek security guarantees rather than military triumph.
• The UAE has already reduced its military footprint, retaining strategic influence quietly.
• Iran will maintain leverage but face increasing international pressure.

The true and undeniable loser is the Yemeni people—millions displaced, starved, and trapped in a conflict they neither started nor control.

A Broader Failure of the Muslim World

Beyond Yemen, this conflict reflects a deeper malaise in the Muslim world:

the absence of a collective moral and political framework that prioritizes human life over geopolitical rivalry.

Wars are fought in the name of security, sect, or strategy, yet they produce failed states, broken societies, and generational trauma. Leadership measured only by power projection inevitably leads to fragmentation, not unity.

Pakistan’s Lesson and Responsibility

Pakistan’s decision to remain militarily neutral in the Yemen war was not weakness—it was strategic maturity. By avoiding entanglement in proxy wars, Pakistan preserved internal stability and moral credibility.

Going forward, countries like Pakistan have a unique role to play:

• Acting as mediators, not mercenaries
• Advocating political solutions over military ones
• Promoting unity through justice, not dominance

True leadership in the Muslim world will not emerge from battlefields, but from the ability to prevent them.

Conclusion

The Saudi–UAE divergence and the Yemen war demonstrate a hard truth:

modern conflicts rarely end in victory; they end in fatigue and fragile compromises.

Until regional politics are reoriented toward reform, cooperation, and human welfare, new Yemens will continue to emerge—different locations, same tragedy.

Peace will not come through weapons or proxies, but through political courage and ethical leadership.

Syed Ali Raza Naqvi Bukhari

Unity of Peace, Economic Reform, and Global Unity

Founder & Chairman of Tehreek Istehkam Pakistan, and the author of “Law of God” and “Social Democratic System.” Advocate for truth, social justice, and reform in all sectors of society.