India–Bangladesh Crisis; How Sheikh Hasina’s Fall Has Reopened South Asia’s Strategic Map.

India–Bangladesh Crisis; How Sheikh Hasina’s Fall Has Reopened South Asia’s Strategic Map — and Why Pakistan Now Holds a Unique Opportunity

The dramatic political collapse of Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina — a figure deeply aligned with Indian strategic interests — has triggered a major geopolitical realignment in South Asia. Her sentencing and the absence of significant public resistance in Bangladesh marked not just the end of her political era, but also the end of India’s long-standing leverage over Dhaka.

For decades, India relied on Hasina’s Awami League as a buffer against Chinese and Pakistani influence. With that buffer gone, Bangladesh is rapidly shifting its foreign policy orientation. And the shift is taking place at the worst possible moment for New Delhi: a time when India has entered one of the most dangerous geopolitical phases in its history.

India: From Predator to Prey in the Geopolitical Game

India’s leadership believed that its growing economy and ties with global powers would expand its strategic autonomy. Instead, the exact opposite has occurred. By aligning too deeply with competing global blocs, India has restricted its maneuverability and weakened its traditional regional dominance.

The principle of power politics is straightforward: if a hunter fails to hunt, it eventually becomes the hunted. India’s reliance on coercive diplomacy and regional dominance is now backfiring.

India’s Four-Way Strategic Encirclement

India currently faces pressure on all sides:

• China in Ladakh, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh
• Pakistan on its western border
• Bangladesh and China near the Siliguri Corridor
• Nepal and Bhutan, both of which have drifted from Indian influence

This is India’s most vulnerable geopolitical moment since 1971.

The Siliguri Corridor: India’s Achilles’ Heel

The Siliguri Corridor, a mere 22 km-wide strip, is India’s most fragile geostrategic point. It is squeezed between Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and China, and serves as the only land link connecting mainland India to the seven northeastern states.

The moment Sheikh Hasina fell, New Delhi realized that its northeastern lifeline was exposed.

India quickly began deploying forces to the area, establishing three active military bases and launching air exercises in Assam. These moves clearly signal India’s fear:

a hostile alignment near the Siliguri Corridor could sever India’s northeast from the rest of the country.

Bangladesh After Hasina: A New Opening for Pakistan

Sheikh Hasina’s fall did not trigger any national unrest in her favor; in fact, ordinary Bangladeshi citizens pressured the courts to proceed. Immediately after the verdict, Bangladesh demanded her extradition from India — an unprecedented sign of public rejection.

The end of the Awami League era has opened a diplomatic corridor Pakistan has not enjoyed for half a century.

Pakistan–Bangladesh Relations Revive

• Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and senior intelligence leadership visited Dhaka.
• Bilateral trade agreements were signed.
• Visa relaxations were introduced.
• Direct commercial flight operations are being restored.

These developments were previously unimaginable under Hasina’s rule.

The Game-Changing Development: China’s Airbase in Lalmonirhat

China is establishing an airbase in Lalmonirhat, in Bangladesh’s Rangpur Division — just 15–20 km from the Indian border and extremely close to the Siliguri Corridor.

The most critical detail:

Part of the project is being undertaken by a Pakistani company in a joint framework.

For Pakistan, this is the most strategically significant breakthrough in decades. This joint project expands Pakistan’s regional influence and directly enhances its geostrategic reach near India’s most vulnerable artery.

India’s Increasing Panic

India’s response has been swift but nervous:

• A large Air Force show in Assam on 9 November
• Continuous combat exercises until 20 November
• Repeated public statements warning Pakistan and China
• Warnings about activity near Sir Creek and eastern sectors

India is attempting to signal deterrence, but its anxiety is visible.

The deeper truth is that India is struggling to manage the consequences of its past policies. Its aggressive engagement in Afghanistan, its hyper-nationalistic domestic politics, and its reliance on extremist narratives have pushed the state into a corner. New Delhi cannot reverse these policies without triggering internal instability.

Can India Escape This Strategic Trap?

In simple terms: India cannot easily escape.

Why India’s Situation Is Irreversible

1. Extremism has become a national political identity.
   Reversing it may collapse the ruling party’s legitimacy.
2. India faces simultaneous threats from multiple fronts — a scenario no modern power can sustain long-term.
3. Economic exposure to Western and Middle Eastern partners has limited India’s ability to navigate independently.
4. Internal fault lines — Kashmir, Punjab, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, and Tamil Nadu — are reactivating.
5. India’s overreach in Afghanistan will backfire, potentially triggering fragmentation in Afghanistan itself — a scenario you previously predicted.

This is not a temporary crisis. It is a structural collapse of India’s regional strategy.

How Pakistan Can Benefit From the New Reality

Pakistan now stands at a historically advantageous position.

1. Strategic Leverage Over India

Pakistan, through its joint presence with China near Siliguri, can influence Indian military calculations without direct confrontation.

2. Diplomatic Revival in South Asia

Bangladesh’s openness to Pakistan can evolve into a new regional bloc, reducing India’s dominance.

3. Economic Expansion

New trade routes, textile partnerships, and aviation ties can substantially increase Pakistan’s export profile.

4. Defence and Intelligence Cooperation

Pakistan’s role in the Lalmonirhat project enhances its credibility as a regional defence partner.

5. Strategic Depth in the East

For the first time since 1971, Pakistan gains indirect access to the Bay of Bengal through diplomatic and strategic channels.

Conclusion

India’s political miscalculations and extremist domestic trajectory have created an irreversible strategic crisis. The downfall of Sheikh Hasina has accelerated this shift, exposing India’s Achilles’ heel — the Siliguri Corridor — at the exact moment when China and Pakistan are expanding their regional footprint.

For Pakistan, this is not just an opportunity;

it is the first real strategic opening in 50 years.

Author Byline

Syed Ali Raza Naqvi Bukhari

Unity of Peace, Economic Reform, and Global Unity

Founder & Chairman of Tehreek Istehkam Pakistan, and the author of “Law of God” and “Social Democratic System.” Advocate for truth, social justice, and reform in all sectors of society.