Iran and Pakistan: A Brotherhood in Transition—History, Opportunities, and Strategic Dilemmas

Iran and Pakistan: A Brotherhood in Transition—History, Opportunities, and Strategic Dilemmas

Introduction

Iran and Pakistan—two neighboring Islamic nations—share more than just a border. Bound by deep historical, religious, cultural, and linguistic ties, both countries have witnessed decades of cooperation, tensions, and missed opportunities. In 2024, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Pakistan rekindled hopes of a revived partnership amid shifting regional dynamics. However, economic hurdles, geopolitical pressures, and conflicting alliances raise vital questions about the future trajectory of Iran-Pakistan relations.

This article seeks to explore the past, evaluate the present, and anticipate the future of this complex relationship while analyzing the recent developments, including military, economic, and strategic elements.

Historical Overview Brotherhood and Fractures

Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan after its independence in 1947. For years, both nations enjoyed relatively smooth relations, especially during the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. However, the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and Pakistan’s shifting alignment toward the Gulf states and the United States introduced new complexities.

Despite occasional border tensions and sectarian spillovers, both countries have maintained a diplomatic cordiality. Iran’s support during Pakistan’s post-nuclear sanctions era, and Pakistan’s role in trying to mediate in Middle East disputes, reflect mutual respect.

Pending Energy Deals Oil, Gas, and Electricity.

One of the most promising but frustratingly delayed aspects of Iran-Pakistan relations is energy cooperation. The Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline, also dubbed the “Peace Pipeline,” has been under discussion since the 1990s but remains unfulfilled due to international sanctions on Iran and pressure from the United States. This pipeline, once functional, could provide Pakistan with a stable and affordable supply of natural gas.

Similarly, discussions over cheap Iranian electricity and crude oil remain inconclusive. Iran has offered to export thousands of megawatts of electricity to Pakistan’s energy-starved provinces like Balochistan, yet infrastructural, financial, and political challenges stall progress.

Why should Pakistan import cheap Iranian fuel and power?

The answer is simple: economic survival and energy security. Affordable energy would help Pakistan overcome its ongoing energy crisis, boost industrial productivity, and reduce its reliance on more expensive alternatives.

President Raisi’s 2024 Visit: Symbolism and Substance

President Raisi’s visit to Pakistan was timely. It took place just weeks after an escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel, during which Iranian territory was reportedly attacked. In this backdrop, Raisi’s outreach to Islamabad had strategic overtones. His visit was likely aimed at achieving the following:

1. Renewing stalled energy agreements (particularly the gas pipeline).

2. Discussing regional security in light of Israel’s aggression and India’s presence in Iran.

3. Proposing economic integration, including cross-border trade, free trade zones, and joint infrastructure.

4. Fostering military-to-military dialogue and intelligence cooperation, especially on anti-terror operations along the Balochistan-Sistan border.

India’s Investments and Strategic Competition

While Pakistan and Iran share religious and cultural ties, India’s strategic and economic footprint in Iran has grown significantly. The development of Chabahar Port, which I personally visited in 2019 (when only four cranes were operational), has seen significant modernization—especially after Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement.

India’s investment in Chabahar (to bypass Pakistan and access Afghanistan and Central Asia) contrasts sharply with Pakistan’s economic inertia. The port is a critical component of India’s geopolitical strategy to counterbalance Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

This puts Pakistan in a diplomatic dilemma

• On one hand, Iran is a brotherly country offering energy and connectivity.

• On the other hand, Iran is increasingly opening doors to Indian influence and infrastructure, often at the cost of strategic balance in the region.

Espionage and Regional Security: The Israel-India Nexus

Recent Iranian intelligence revelations indicate that Indian intelligence assets were caught working on behalf of Israel within Iranian territory. These developments underscore Iran’s vulnerability to foreign infiltration and reflect a growing suspicion of India’s broader regional role, especially in collaboration with Tel Aviv.

From Pakistan’s perspective, this shift could draw Iran closer to Islamabad, as both countries have reason to be cautious of Indian-Israeli cooperation. Shared intelligence, counter-terrorism operations, and regional defense dialogues may find new traction.

China’s Role and Military Cooperation

China’s growing influence in both Iran and Pakistan serves as a strategic bridge between the two neighbors. Beijing has invested billions in CPEC and recently signed major economic and defense agreements with Iran.

Could this triangulation lead to future military cooperation? Possibly.

There is increasing talk of:

• Joint military drills between China, Pakistan, and Iran.

• Maritime security collaboration in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.

• Technology transfers and coordinated defense research.

Given Pakistan’s strong defense ties with China and Iran’s desire to modernize its military under sanctions, a tripartite military bloc could emerge—changing the strategic balance of West and South Asia.

Religious and Cultural Unity: An Underused Asset

Pakistan and Iran are both Islamic Republics with deep-rooted cultural and religious connections. Though sectarianism has occasionally marred relations, there is ample room for unity. Shared language heritage (Persian influence on Urdu), Sufi traditions, and Shi’a-Sunni harmony can be foundations for stronger people-to-people engagement.

Religious diplomacy—promoting unity among Muslim nations—can also be leveraged to strengthen Iran-Pakistan bonds and counter external divisive influences.

Conclusion What Lies Ahead?

Iran and Pakistan stand at a critical geopolitical crossroad. On one side lies the path of economic cooperation, energy integration, and military alignment. On the other side are lingering doubts, conflicting external alliances, and diplomatic hesitancy.

If Pakistan is to stabilize its economy and secure its borders, it must actively pursue deeper cooperation with Iran, particularly in:

• Energy trade (gas, electricity, oil)

• Counter-terrorism and intelligence

• Regional connectivity (via rail, road, and ports)

• Defense collaboration (with Chinese support)

However, this must be done without compromising Pakistan’s ties with Arab Gulf states, balancing its relationships through neutral diplomacy and economic pragmatism.

Iran, too, must decide: Will it allow India’s economic investments to influence its broader strategic orientation, or will it embrace its natural partner across the border?

The answer to this question will determine the future of Iran-Pakistan relations in the 21st century.

I Syed Ali Raza Naqvi Bukhari 

Unity of Peace, Economic Reform, and Global Unity

Founder & Chairman of Tehreek Istehkam Pakistan, and the author of “Law of God” and “Social Democratic System.” I am advocates for truth, social justice, and reform in all sectors of society.